Could mass testing for COVID-19 prevent Australia's next coronavirus lockdown?

Austria, Slovakia and Luxembourg have done it.

China shut down an entire city to do it as well.

Mass testing of an entire population to detect both symptomatic and non-symptomatic coronavirus infections has also been trialled by some cities in the United Kingdom.

There is a school of thought that conducting such large-scale health screenings is the way to get on top of mystery COVID-19 cases and remove the need for lockdowns.

On Sunday, more than 38,000 people got tested in Sydney — a New South Wales record — and 15 cases were detected, but there is still uncertainty over how controlled this latest outbreak is.

Readers of the ABC's daily coronavirus live blog have regularly asked if mass testing could prevent Australia from needing to shut down again.

In principle, it is a simple idea: test every Australian, isolate those with the virus and remove the need for a lockdown.

But here is what authorities have to take into account and why they haven't launched mass-testing events in Australia.

Testing every Australian would take nearly 300 days

Australia is a country of roughly 25.5 million.

While that puts us outside the top 50 of most populous countries, it is still a large number of people to have tested in a short space of time.

The most tests conducted in one day in Australia was 87,500, according to the Department of Health.

That was on August 27, during the second wave of the pandemic.

On that day, there was one test per second conducted in Australia.

At that rate, it would take almost 300 days to test every person once.

"Australia does not have the testing or laboratory capacity to test all Australians at once, or a whole jurisdiction at once, and this would not be an effective way of testing," a department spokesperson told the ABC.

"Given Australia's ability to successfully suppress the virus, population-wide testing would result in millions of negative tests and require significant resources, including diverting human resources."

This is why the focus has been on testing those who develop symptoms commonly associated with COVID-19, with the department saying Australia is up to the task.

"In Australia, we have a highly sophisticated private and public pathology sector which has sufficient testing capacity and capability to manage the current (and any future surge) testing demand and contact tracing requirements," the spokesperson said.

What if we diverted every resource to make it happen?

Let us hypothetically say Australia had the ability to test everyone in a matter of days — would we do it?

In short, no.

While testing everyone would let you know who had COVID-19 at that point in time, it would not prevent the virus from being on our shores.

"Even if the population was tested and Australia was found to be free of the virus at a point in time, we are continuing to receive international passengers and goods from countries where the virus has not been controlled," the department spokesperson said.

Australia currently has a hotel quarantine system for overseas travellers which — for the most part — has been objectively successful in controlling the spread of COVID-19 from other parts of the world.

Testing every Australian at once would not stop the risk of a hotel quarantine breach.

This is why the system we have in place is the most practical, according to Catherine Bennett, the chair of epidemiology at Deakin University.

"Where we are now, hopefully, we're in a situation where the virus would have to cross the international border," she said.

"Even if we don't stop that from happening, we're in a position to detect it very early.

"So I would argue that you never need to do it for every person in Australia."

The other issue with mass testing is the risk of missing people who have the virus.

The current testing we have tells you if you have the virus but cannot tell you if you will get the virus.

"From the time you actually get an infecting dose exposure, you could be two days later showing a viral load that means you could already be potentially infectious," Dr Bennett said.

"Or you could be in a situation where you might be infected, but it is very low level and you won't have any symptoms, the tests come back all negative.

"It's hit and miss. Some would be too early to actually get a positive test."

There is also the risk of getting false-positive results, which would further distort the actual rate of the virus in the community.

How bad would another lockdown be?

Testing, contact tracing and lockdowns have been a major part of Australia's response to the pandemic.

However, lockdowns put a major strain on the economy — not to mention people's mental health.

Shane Oliver, chief economist of AMP Capital, told the ABC the Australian economy lost roughly $40 billion a fortnight during the initial lockdowns in autumn.

"If we knock 40 billion out of the economy that is like taking 2 per cent out."

The Federal Government has needed to rack up a massive deficit to cushion the economy's fall.

Further lockdowns would increase the blowout.

It is for this reason economists like Mr Oliver want governments across the country to avoid lockdowns when possible.

"I am not in the camp that says the lockdowns were a mistake, because if we went the United States approach we would have had around 18,000 more dead Australians," Mr Oliver said.

"If each time there was an outbreak of coronavirus of a certain number, that needed to force lockdown, it would cost Australia a lot of money."

So how does Australia avoid another lockdown?

Lockdowns across Australia have put a strain not just on the economy, but individuals as well.

Loss of jobs, separation from loved ones and a halt to cherished activities is how many will remember 2020.

Avoiding another lockdown anywhere in Australia is a responsibility we all share.

Dr Bennett said employing the basic hygiene etiquette we had all been taught this year was a simple way to reduce the risk of infection.

The Australian Government's COVID-19 website has this advice:

• Wash your hands often with soap and water. This includes before and after eating and after going to the toilet
• Use alcohol-based hand sanitisers when you can't use soap and water
• Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth
• Clean and disinfect surfaces you use often such as benchtops, desks and doorknobs
• Clean and disinfect objects you use often such as mobile phones, keys, wallets and work passes
• Increase the amount of fresh air by opening windows or changing air-conditioning

Other measures we can take include remaining socially distant, staying home if unwell, following directions at public events and isolating when told too.

Being aware of potential symptoms is another key to controlling the virus.

Dr Bennett said people should be certain they had a clean bill of health.

"We can still use the symptoms as a sign in the majority of people," she said.

"Get tested and be sure you're clear before you then interact with anyone beyond your household."

 

Source: ABC Health